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专访诺奖得主:美股只是暂时反弹 未来还会下跌!

2020-05-21 17:25:34 来源: 奔驰线上娱乐开户 网易号 举报
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专访诺奖得主基德兰德:没必要抵制美联储加息

本文是网易研究局独家稿件,未经同意禁止一切媒体转载,包括友商。

·聚焦国际思想市场·解析财经新闻热点·对话国际经济学大师

疫情蔓延导致世界经济受到冲击,美国股市多次熔断,美原油出现历史性的“负油价”现象。目前各国通过一系列刺激调控措施,全球疫情发展进入平台期,全球经济趋稳。但目前是否到达世界经济的谷底?未来经济又该如何复苏?网易研究局(wyyjj163)近日专访哈佛大学经济系讲席教授埃里克·马斯金。

网易研究局:你如何看待世界经济的发展,世界经济的谷底在哪里?当前世界经济将如何复苏?

埃里克·马斯金:我不认为我们的经济处于最底部,金融市场尚未触底。股市经历了暂时性的下跌,但在短时间内出现了反弹,我认为这不是可持续的。疫情使经济遭受重创,金融市场无法维持如此高的水平。股市将会继续下跌,当股市下跌时,将会对实体经济产生不利影响。

恐怕要从这场非常严重的衰退中恢复过来,我们还有很长的路要走。我认为,这很可能会比2008-2009年的情况更为严重。是否会像19世纪30年代那样陷入严重的萧条,将取决于政策的反应,但几乎可以肯定的是,它将比十年前的衰退更为严重。

以下是英文译文:

The spread of the epidemic has caused a shock to the world economy, the US stock market has repeatedly melted, and the US crude oil has experienced a historical "negative oil price" phenomenon. At present, through a series of stimulus and control measures, the global epidemic situation has entered a platform period, and the global economy has stabilized. But has it reached the bottom of the world economy? How should the economy recover in the future? NetEase Economic Research Bureau recently interviewed Eric Maskin, Chair Professor of the Department of Economics at Harvard University.

NetEase Economic Research Bureau (NERB) :What do you think of the development ofthe world economy and where is the bottom? At present, how will the world economy recover?

Eric Maskin:I don’t think we are at the bottom. In the speech that I just gave,I said that financial markets have not yet bottomed out. There was a temporary dip in the stock market, but stocks went back most of the way in a short time. I don’t think that’s sustainable. I think the economy has been hit too hard for financial markets to stay so high. I think they are going to fall and when they do , that is going to have an adverse effect on real economy .

I am afraid we are on a long way from recovering from this very serious recession. I think in all probability it willbe more serious than the one in 2008-2009. Whether it will turn into a great depression like the 1930s will depend on policy response, but almost certainly that it will be worse than the recession ten years ago.

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李兆元 本文来源:网易研究局 责任编辑:李兆元_B7890
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